Nomad AMA
ok cool. This is the AMA thread
ill start answering at around 10:00pm CST
last time it was a shit show so a few rules
1-ill answer as many questions as I can in 2hrs. might pick it up later
2-trolls will just get pictures of messi
3-follow ups may not be gotten to
2:58 AM · Jan 30, 2021
Why you stop trading at the most epic moment in history?
because i traded +365 days straight. covid basically keeping me in one location did it, neglecting too many i want to do.
and truthfully ill eventually fuck up in this context. so ide rather take a month off (w/ some rules to reenter early) and recharge.
do u run any bots? if yes, what are things u wish someone told u early on or lessons/tips u wish U knew earlier.
i have an ARMY of bots.
dont think about how you know when to enter. those are things a weekend of work can produce. think about how to know when you're wrong
You say you’re barely looking at charts before a trade anymore, but review past actions. Can you develop those actions you’re checking please? Or what makes you decide to enter / not enter a trade? Ty
what i do shouldnt matter to you.
if you're new - i would say pick a system, any system. learn it well. all the inside and outs. where it works, where it doesnt.
this will be your compass when the market isnt clear.
In your opinion, If tether were to go to 0 or get banned etc... would it be a bullish or bearish catalyst for Crypto and why?
last i heard on tether, there have been no charges at any level. the last 3 years have been over jurisdiction.
until anyone, anywhere files charges. im not interested in speculating. just watch your exposure if you're worried. plenty of legit places to short crypto to hedge.
On 20x leverage, do you have a time expiration when you cut a trade before hitting price target?
i think you're asking a cost question. like how long do i want to hold it before paying the funding rate. I would say that there are times i dont enter a trade if the funding rate is enough and its not in my favor.there are other times it low enough where ive held it for a month
How do you track all your trading for tax purposes? Or is taxation theft and f tha police?
ive paid taxes on crypto since 2010, includein 2013-2017 when i was a market maker. my tax guy knows to expect epic spread sheets. thats what hes paid for and ill sometimes file quarterly
coinbase only recently started giving you real top line summary + detail reports like brokers do .
emacs, nano, or vim?
vi
emacs sucks without plugins. zealots can eat shit
nano is ok. I just know all the shortcuts for vi.
From an administrative persepective, do you run your trading through personal accounts or do you find it more advantageous to set up via company (onshore or offshore)?
depending on your tax laws where you're at,its almost always better to trade as a company vs an individual if you are actively trading.
talk to a tax planner or account firm.
thats what they exist for.
Do you use on chain analytics and if so then any particular ones that you use? I know that you'll have your own edge on it but was just curious about it. Much love to you <3
not really because I don't trade things I can get rugged easily. If I did, ide probably writes something subscribe to infura update streams for various uni/sushi/amm contracts and individual desk wallets. Dune Analytics might have some of this info as well
Would it be possible for someone to execute on your behalf with sufficient understanding of your systems? This is not a when paid group question, just wondering how much you have tailored your system around your personality.
i would never let someone trade my funds.
but lets say i was willing to sell all my code and set it up for someone else at a some gross number (+30M) .
i think if i wrapped a more polished interface around it someone could learn to drive it in under 6 months.
Do you feel pressure, as a major influencer, that so many people take your comments and put their money on projects based on your call? Further, knowing they don’t have the resources you do and may depend on you getting it right. Thank you.
im, not an influencer because you guys aren't my major profit center.
i don't really post calls.
everyone is responsible for their own book.
Who were big shots in early CT that aren’t around anymore?
lot of guys never made it off irc.
or out of the bear market of 2014. they got blown up or sold when they finally got to break even.
Anatolio is an interesting one to talk about.
one of the original bear whales.
deception (sp?) is another. gigabag of ltc.
Citadel and high freq trading shops, good or bad for markets and liquidity?
I don't have the issue with the citadel most people have. (as a business . toxic work place) if they didn't exist, your brokers spread would be wide as fuck, and no one would trade
what do you talk about with friends? how do you deal with people talking down on you, eg on investments?
i dont talk money with friends most of the time.
the last convo with my dad on crypto went something like this
dad: heh how bout that bitcoin price? really didn't like the sec news huh?
me: yeah....it full retrace and made a new high. bids at 1500
dad: *wat*
1 - what do most people trying to build a trading bot get wrong?
2 - more alpha in the order book or price/volume data?
1.) everyone new forgets about costs. "hur dur my bot made a 3 dollars scalp, why didn't i make 3 dollars"
2.) orderbook hasn't happened yet, volume has already happened. both can be useful depending on what questions you're trying to answer.
do i need a math/stats/whatever background to come up with a decent automated strategy? I’m a programmer but have never tried to do anything automated bc i don’t know anything fancy math-wise
it helps but no... at least not to start.
a good developer can create a kinda shit but working bot in a weekend. the key is to review data and improve it iteratively.
also the bots moving parts are different from the actual strategy.
One advice you would give to traders who start wit 1k-5k in their account
learn to trade with 10% of that.
the rest should be on reserve somewhere for when you blow up. to borrow from poker, its your stake - not your working capital.
also dont trade big just because you see CT doing so.
If someone is up 3x in crypto past one month. How much would you recommend to remove from the market? Im embarassed to say this but i fomo a lot.
im not going to tell you where to put your money.
i will say im a big fan of paying yourself after big win
that could mean cashing out the profits completely, that could mean putting some in cold storage, off-exchange.
Your thoughts on regulation? Where were at now and where you think we are headed.
like all things in the US, theres two parties
one that says regulate all the things, crypto is used by criminals.
another that says, everyone else is allowing this thing to grow, why cant we ?
i think we'll land somewhere in the middle.
how many years before the market isnt free money anymore? 5 years? 3? serious question
To be honest, I don't know. People were saying in 2017, the free money was over, but I haven't had to change my trading in a long while. Probably as long as there's a market where new names can be created quickly, there will be something to be done.
do you think this macro cycle completes this year or extends much further beyond?
i dont forecast.
if you made me guess, ide say watch inflows and SEC declarations for term changes to include crypto
Do you find CT sentiment to be overly reliant on TA? Reading most big accounts earlier this week you'd think we'd have dumped to 25k by now
i can trade directly off CT sentiment if i have to. literally created a system around it. there was a 7 month period i barely looked at the charts.
that being said, your trading shouldn't even acknowledge it.
trade what you see and go with that.
How many bullruns have you been apart of and what is one thing that makes this one different?
All of them.
Everyone got a feel of what a fraction of the institutional money they've been begging for the last 10 yrs looks like. Also, what the retraces look like.
What are your top rules for success as a trader?
trade my own trades.
twitter is usually wrong.
What makes you respect/admire a trader?
I would say consistent performance
or massive improvements.
There plenty of guys you see me talk to regularly that were absolute dog shit when they started. Now they are reasonably good to amazing.
Time weeds out the people that can't make it.
What’s your favourite low market cap alt? What’s your favourite micro market cap alt?
I don't really trade either much. they tend to be a longer game for real returns and require really knowing the project.
Also, liquidity is usually too shit to make a real trade unless I'm willing to go otc/deal with devs.
Is yearly top in in both crypto and legacy markets?
no idea. I don't forecast. that's for people trying to sell you things. trade on the information I have.
One tool that you can be without that helped your profitability in trading besides risk management?
I learned to trade without all the fancy stuff we have now.
It would suck, and I would be at a disadvantage, but I could easily go back to it and do the math in my head and such.
maybe programming ability if you made me name something
What is currently missing in crypto exchange/trading that you think is critical for mass adoption for large desks/funds
MMP and better guarantees around funds.
Every exchange understands this, but they nod their heads.
Most real desks write the money off as already gone when they put it on an exchange, so literally, any return is reasonable.
Worst case of tilt in your trading career?
I don't have any stories of getting terribly rekt. I learned to trade in a bear market pre crypto and then learned leverage in fx at 300x.
Do you see any project as long term hold worthy? And if there are, what are they?
i dont really trade like that.
anything but bitcoin (and occasionally eth ) gets rotated as i see a need to do so.
What are the three things you look for when you first look a chart?
You asked one. But I rarely use charts anymore.
When I do, I try to keep them simple.
Noticing a lot of quick scalps, is that the best fit for the current market or what you're the most used to?
i like to let price fill out a range before i take longer-term trades. i can define the risk better for 5m-2hrs much better than I can with no history to work with.
Thoughts on how cme futs will effect Eth? More institutional involvement due to an available hedge?
i dont have a great feel of the topic tbh.
when BTC futs came up, there was huge hype because the "powers that be" said it couldn't be done, would never be approved, there would no interest, all the negative things.
But the press hype got a hold of it and price went parabolic
What is anything interests you about defi in its current state?
that it was an area that was nearly abandoned and has become the biggest use-case of an entire blockchain.
DEX had existed since 2015 and there was no real improvement until like June of this year.
Stables existed since 2014 and only blew up with ICOs/2017 arbs.
How does options expiry affect spot prices?
It depends on the overall open intrest. If it is not significant, it doesn't really. If it is huge, people usually have a cash/futures position that accompanies their position. That position has to go somewhere at expiry to realize profit.
Any trading/psychology books/resources you recommend? I’m interested in becoming a more organized trader (entries/stops etc)
market wizards is the default reco for both.
what you end up interested in would influence what comes next.
Do you denominate primarily in BTC or USD? And why?
in a bull market , i want cash
in a bear market i want btc and crypto
what leverage x do you like to trade with
anywhere from 3-25x. the more fund I'm comfortable putting somewhere, the less leverage I require.
How competitive do you think market making is today? Does a solo autist programmer have a shot vs. alameda wintermute et al?
i think a solo guy has a chance.
especially since a lot of desk will only trade top 10.
even today,not actively market marking. i do more volume on a per month basis myself than some desk with names you'd recognize.
but its not just about volume,its the quality of the trading
thoughts on last 3 weeks? feels like Bitcoin is being held in a tight range? are whales range bound trading it?
btc and eth are consolidating. they both more than doubled in a month period.
What's the best advice u can give to someone who's starting?
this thread has that answered a few ways.
take a look. if you have something specific, ill answer
On average how many trades are you entering in a day?
when im not on break and not in a long term position
anywhere from 3-400. note: I have automation around this.
How diversified is your personal investment?
my trading stack is my trading stack.
everything else is either direct people of business investments
2qs if you don't mind. Do you feel the mania stage has kicked in already for this cycle? Is your daily countdown (-27 days) based on any of your proprietary indicators?
im taking a break from trading (w/ very few exceptions)
i traded for nearly a year straight. literally all my free time.
need some time off, so a ramp to ATH on eth seemed like a good place to do it.
the countdown is till i can return.
How do you set a momentum and keep yourself from being burnt out after a series of losses.
learn to take breaks on both. seriously
How long did it take you to become profitable?
i thought i was profitable right away because i had the overall direction of the market right for 6-8 months. Then the direction changes and my profits percentage dropped.. never went negative but I realized fast that I needed to learn the game
you recently mentioned options expiry and how that may impact the price of BTC, could you please explain why that would have an impact on the price?
i covered that in this thread
How many times have you been shot in Chicago?
are you looking for a messi photo ?
What’s your main hobby outside of work/trading?
the two are tied together
ide say lifting is the main hobby ive had over time.
once competed in a strong man comp.
i was an EDM artist before that was the name for it but i got burned out on it.
Do you have any rare pics of Messi?
probably if i check the backlogs but if they weren't on Twitter , i wont post them here
I have many questions, do you like guns, and are you proficient in shooting?
i don't have an armory but yeah I can shoot if I have to.
What do you use for trading that is not charts?
a toolset i wrote. candlestick can get you stuck in a bias.
reference and entry only
Does gme and such feel like 2017 mania to u?
GME is an army buyer vs a few big sellers, the likes these markets have never seen.
I've been hearing people say "we're all going to make it". Is that true?
if
@AngeloBTC
said it, its probably true.
What's the first thing you do when you look at the BTC (or ETH) chart when you get ready to trade
i dont look at a chart to trade but i do review action from the previous 8-12 hours to see if i even want to trade.
Average time in trade and any alpha for scalping?
i dont know average. max is ~2 hrs.
What do you predict will be the highest price of BTC between now and the end of 2021?
i dont forecast
Have you retired from market making?
mostly. i provided liquidity 2013-mid 2017 near 24/7.
im much more systematic now.
fruit loops or fruity pebbles
fruity loops.
No question, thanks for everything you do.
yw
What's your outlook on the space as a whole in the coming year?
same as its been the last 11 ?
how long have you been trading? How did you learn to trade? What tips can you give to someone who wants to become a better trader?
too long.
at a desk, when i was really too young to really be doing so or take it as seriously as i should.
when you lose, review your damn trades. figure out what could have been done better.